DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/16 10:47
Soybeans Up Double Digits at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans is 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat is 3
cents lower to 3 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 115 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.05 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly
lower with crude off $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
mostly higher with gold up $12.00.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed with steady spread action as we try to
consolidate the week's gains into the weekend, as nearby demand, Brazil corn
and the slow start to the U.S. growing season all in focus. Ethanol margins
should remain stable with the energy complex holding the rally to offset corn
values. Corn basis continues to hold firm throughout the belt. Double-crop
progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather with the dry season approaching
and surging cash values locally. On the May contract, chart resistance is the
contract high at $6.01 1/2, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.96 now just
above the market, then the 20-day at $5.63 as support.
Soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade being carried by
stronger product values across the board with meal finding buying during the
day session. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher and oil is 0.85 to 0.95 cent higher.
NOPA crush was a little short of expectations Thursday with oil stocks lower as
well. South America is expected to continue harvest progress in Brazil with
little overall weather change short term, and Argentina looking stable short
term. The May soybean chart has support at the 20-day at $14.09, which we
closed just above Thursday with the upper Bollinger Band at $14.43, which we
are about a dime away from.
Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with support from feed demand
and concerns about cold weather offsetting rains in the Plains short term. The
downtrend in the dollar is supportive to buying as well, although it looks to
be stabilizing after the recent slide. Weather in the Plains has some cold in
it as well, but threats look limited so far with northwest Kansas to see temps
just below freezing over the next few days. KC has narrowed back to a 42-cent
discount to Chicago with Minneapolis 16 cents above Chicago. KC May on the
chart has support at the 20-day at $5.78 that we held Friday, with $6.09 the
next level of resistance where we find the upper Bollinger Band, which we are
just below at midday.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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