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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments      04/16 06:41
   Selling Pressure May Be Short-lived

   Livestock futures closed lower Thursday with hogs taking the brunt of the
pressure. Cattle continue to be under pressure due to rising feed prices. Hogs
had a round of "Katie-bar-the-door" selling Thursday as traders could not
liquidate fast enough, leaving futures locked limit down. Follow-through is
likely as the remaining pool of trades are liquidated on the open.

Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst

   Cattle: Higher   Futures: Mixed   Live Equiv:   $204.37 +2.07*

   Hogs:  Lower    Futures: Lower   Lean Equiv:  $119.91 +3.28**

   * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.

   (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in
live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

   ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

   GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It was an ugly day in the livestock complex. Cattle futures continued to
decline even though cash traded higher and boxed beef showed strong prices. The
focus was on continued futures weakness as liquidation is still not finished.
High grain prices, cash not increasing as much as most had anticipated, and
somewhat dismal export sales kept pressure on futures. The bright spot was that
cash did trade higher and boxed beef was significantly higher. However, that
paled in comparison to the negatives. Fund liquidation has defied the usual
three-day decline, especially in the face of increasing cash prices. However,
exports have been struggling the past few weeks, indicating that beef prices
have become too high for the international appetite. Export sales totaled
15,700 metric tons, down 14% from the previous week and down 23% from the
four-week average. Not good. U.S. consumers have not backed away due to
stimulus money and other benefits, which is keeping boxed beef prices strong.
Increasing grain prices and plummeting futures triggered cash sales Thursday
$0.50 to $1.00 higher. This was good, but disappointing to the trade. It may be
difficult to see higher futures Friday, but some stability could be seen.
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